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Writer's pictureA.Weishaupt

2024 Election Eve Prediction Update - The Betting Markets

Updated: Nov 4

Alright, it’s down to the wire, and here’s where we stand: the 2024 U.S. presidential election is one of the tightest in history. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck, and the betting markets are just as polarized as the polls. Both sides are making last-ditch efforts in key battlegrounds, knowing this race could be decided by razor-thin margins in a handful of states. Get ready, because this isn’t just an election – it’s a battle for the soul of the country, and anything can happen.


National Polls: A Near Tie – But Do They Mean Anything?


Despite the endless media spin, this race isn’t breaking decisively either way. RealClearPolitics shows a slight lead for Harris at 0.9 points, but it’s well within the margin of error. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight gives Trump a thin advantage with a 51.5% chance of winning the Electoral College. Sure, these numbers sound scientific, but with pollsters cooking the data and adjusting “likely voter” models at will, let’s take this with a grain of salt. If this year has shown us anything, it’s that polling in America is on shaky ground.


Swing State Showdown: Where It’ll Be Won or Lost


This election is hanging by a thread in several battleground states. Here’s the rundown on the latest numbers:


  • Arizona: Trump leads by 1.6%. Expect high tension as the night goes on – Arizona will be a critical early indicator.

  • Georgia: Trump’s got a 1.2% edge. The Peach State has been a tug-of-war, but it’s leaning red.

  • Michigan: Harris is up by 1.5%. Michigan is a must-win for her, but Trump’s campaign is clawing for every vote.

  • Nevada: Trump leads by a hair at 0.6%. With a heavy focus on early voting, Nevada could surprise.

  • North Carolina: Another narrow Trump lead at 1.2%. The state leans red, but only just.

  • Pennsylvania: Trump’s up by 0.1%. If he wins here, it could be game over for Harris.

  • Wisconsin: Harris has a slim 0.8% lead. With turnout skyrocketing, Wisconsin could go either way.


These swing states are too close to call, and every vote counts. Turnout, last-minute decisions, and any “October surprises” that spill into November could flip the script in any of these critical battlegrounds.


Betting Market Insights: Wagers on Trump’s Win


The betting markets are as fired up as the polls, with Polymarket showing a 62% chance for a Trump victory. Betfair Exchange prices Trump at -138 to Harris’s +138, signaling confidence among bettors that Trump’s momentum will push him over the line. Betting odds may not be gospel, but they’re a fascinating reflection of public perception – and right now, that perception is tilting red.


Expert Predictions: Split as Ever


The “experts” are at odds over who will clinch victory:


  • Nate Silver: Calls it a “pure toss-up,” giving Trump a 51.5% edge.

  • Allan Lichtman: The historian who famously predicted past elections is holding out for a Harris win, citing his “13 Keys to the White House” model.


This divide is telling. If the pros can’t decide, it’s because this race is on a knife’s edge, with the potential for surprises up until the last vote is counted.


The Bottom Line: It’s All About Voter Turnout and the Count


This election will be won on the ground. The national and state polls might as well be whispers in the wind compared to the real power of voter turnout. Trump has the advantage in energy, but Harris’s campaign has poured everything into targeted turnout efforts in swing states. And then there’s the elephant in the room – mail-in ballots. Expect extended counting in key states, and possibly delays as the ballots roll in.


So this is it, folks. We’re looking at a monumental showdown that could change the course of American history. Both sides are bracing for a long night, and so should you. Don’t underestimate the power of the final vote count – or the potential for last-minute twists.


Stay tuned with GlobalistSlut.com as we cover every dirty trick, every razor-thin margin, and every swing state surprise. If there’s one thing we know, it’s this: America is in for a wild ride.


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