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Current Intel on the US F-16 Strike into Syria



October 27th, two US Air Force F-16s struck a weapon storage facility used by militants linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) near Bukamal in eastern Syria. The strikes were in response to the 19 attacks on US bases and personnel in Iraq and Syria since October 17th, including three new ones yesterday.


Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder said 21 US personnel were injured in two of those assaults that used Iranian-supplied drones to target American military bases in Iraq and Syria. Political reports that of the 21 injured, 19 have been diagnosed with traumatic brain injury.


The US bases attacked by militant drones yesterday were Al-Asad airbase in western Iraq and Al Tanf garrison in southeastern Syria. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq posted a statement claiming responsibility for the attack, saying they had fired a salvo of rockets and "hit their targets directly and precisely."


US troops have maintained a presence at Al Tanf in Syria for years to train Syrian allies and monitor ISIS militant activity. Battle damage assessment released to the public following the F-16 strike was limited. The Pentagon said there had been Iranian-aligned militia and IRGC personnel at the base and no civilians, but didn't have any information yet on casualties or whether the intended targets were hit.


DOD officials would also not say what weapons the F-16s used during the strike, but in subsequent remarks, Defense Secretary Austin said "precision self-defense strikes" are a response to a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against US personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups.


The precision munitions carried by US Air Force F-16s include laser-guided GBU series bombs and Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), which are GPS-guided bombs. In this case, JDAMs were most likely used because of their superior standoff ranges which kept the fighters out of surface-to-air missile envelopes.


In his remarks about the mission, SecDef Austin attempted to thread the same needle as President Biden has been attempting to thread in recent days - stating that the strikes had nothing to do with Israel's ongoing war with Hamas and was solely in response to the attacks on US bases in the region.


The United States does hold Iran responsible for funding, arming, equipping, and directing the proxies and intends to hit Iranian-backed groups suspected of targeting Americans as strongly as possible to deter future aggression. But at the same time, it also wants to avoid inflaming the region and provoking a wider conflict.


The militant attacks have caused the Pentagon concern about the force protection posture of the American bases in Iraq and Syria, and conjure up the specter of the Beirut Barracks bombings in 1983 that killed 241 US Marines and 58 French paratroopers.


Subsequent fact-finding after that disaster revealed that the guards hadn't carried loaded weapons and that the perimeter's barbed wire was insufficient. Further, the notion that the mere presence of American forces was a deterrent against Islamic militants was flawed. The presence of troops without a military objective didn't make them a deterrent - it made them a target.


The Pentagon is sending two battalions of Patriot and Avenger missile systems from Fort Liberty and Fort Sill, a THAAD battery from Fort Bliss, and a few more fighter squadrons from various air bases in the US and Europe that will operate out of Jordan. Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Ryder said that plus-up of defense systems means about 900 additional troops will be deployed to the region.


On the Navy front, the Eisenhower carrier strike group is approaching the Strait of Hormuz after leaving their East Coast homeports on October 13th and 14th and transiting the Atlantic. In a previous article, I discussed three options for where that strike group might go, and a few days ago the Pentagon announced they were doing option three - headed right through the Mediterranean, through the Suez Canal, and into the North Arabian Sea - certainly as a signal to Iran.


At the same time, the Bataan amphibious ready group remains "disaggregated," with the USS Bataan and USS Carter Hall in the Gulf of Aden and the USS Mesa Verde in the Mediterranean. Following the attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria and Houthi missile strikes on Israel, the three amphibious ships are staying put rather than rejoining each other.


USNI News is reporting that the international naval presence in the Eastern Mediterranean plussed up this week, with the French Navy sending an amphibious warship to join two guided missile frigates already on station. The Royal Navy has also sent landing and auxiliary ships to the region.


Meanwhile, as international leaders urge restraint, the IDF remains marshalled at the Gaza border poised to invade as Hamas continues rocket attacks, one of which recently hit Tel Aviv. Israeli airstrikes have intensified, and a small number of tanks moved into Gaza, firing rounds in what an IDF spokesman called an "early small tactical incursion preparing the battlefield."


Domestically, the Israeli government has been criticized by survivors of the Hamas raid both for the intelligence failure that missed the threat, and for the lack of transparency afterwards. In general, the Netanyahu administration has been blamed for focusing on settlements near the West Bank rather than those near Gaza.



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