Tensions are escalating dangerously across the Middle East as military forces mobilize on an unprecedented scale. Israel appears poised to launch a ground invasion of Gaza while facing attacks on multiple borders. Meanwhile, Russia and NATO conduct nuclear exercises as the risk of miscalculation rises. This confluence of events raises the specter of an imminent large-scale regional war with potential to go global.
Israel is massing troops and armor along the Gaza border after a weekend of heavy airstrikes failed to stop Palestinian rocket attacks. Prime Minister Netanyahu warns the campaign may last a long time as Hamas vows to fight to the end. With violence also flaring on the Lebanon and West Bank borders, Israel seems headed for war on multiple fronts.
Egypt too is staging a massive show of military force near Israel, with uncertainties over its alignment. Though currently friendly with Israel, Egypt could pivot against it if the conflict widens. Its loyalties may depend on who can provide food and resources for its growing population.
The U.S. appears to be positioning for a wider war, pulling forces from Afghanistan and surging equipment into the Mideast. Attacks on American bases in Syria and Iraq are now routine as Iran-backed militias retaliate for Israeli strikes. Iran itself is on high alert, ready to hit back hard against any U.S. or Israeli attacks.
Meanwhile, NATO and Russia conducted simultaneous nuclear drills as Putin personally oversaw test launches. With both sides on a hair trigger, the chances of accidental escalation are high. Ukraine too could flare up again if the West seeks to draw attention back to Russia.
In a dangerous environment, even small incidents could have outsized consequences. Israel may be planning to use nerve gas against Hamas tunnels, a risky move with its own citizens held hostage. Rogue groups are signaling more attacks, with photos of Israel’s Dimona nuclear site circulated online.
As military activity accelerates, diplomacy has broken down. Arab states are turning against Israel despite internal divisions. Turkey condemned Israel while approving Sweden's NATO membership bid. China and Russia rebuked Israeli “victimhood” at the UN. A perfect storm of tensions means the region is closer to catastrophe than any time in recent memory. Buckle up.
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